These surveys are conducted amongst a sample of 2 000 SA adults from the seven major metropolitan areas of South Africa, interviewing them face-to-face in their homes, with a margin of error of under 2.5%.
How does the President fare?
For three years - from 2000 to 2001 - the President's approval rating lay generally in the low 30s. But from February 2003, the percentage of people who feel that President Mbeki is doing a good job as President began to rise. By the end of 2003, it was in the low 40s. 2004 saw a remarkable rise with the Ten Years of Democracy celebrations and the successful second democratic elections. 2005 has scaled new heights for the President, during which his approval score averaged 61%, up three points from his 2004 average of 58%.
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In non-metro areas, his approval rating rises even further - to 67% (April/August 2005), compared with 68% in August 2004 and 46% in August 2003. His overall average for the whole country is 65%.
All in all, this is a remarkable and sustained performance in a controversy-ridden year.
How consistent is the rating?
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The scores for metro blacks and whites are fairly consistent throughout 2005, although both groups at some point either gave a new all-time high or equaled a previous high; the coloured sample was very consistent but well down on the 55% all-time high achieved in July 2004. The Indian/Asian sample showed higher volatility, and although April recorded a new high, this has since dropped considerably. A consistent 12% of people give a don't know response, this being highest amongst whites at 25% on average.
At year's end (late October), in the black metro sample, younger people were more negative (65% approval compared with the overall average for blacks of 70%). The President's approval rating was fairly consistent across all language groups:
- Zulu speakers - 67% (Zulu speakers in KwaZulu-Natal - 58%)
- Sotho speakers - 71%
- Tswana speakers - 69%
- Xhosa speakers - 74%
Analysis by city amongst blacks reveals that KwaZulu-Natal shows the poorest ratings, but when one looks at all population groups, Cape Town records the lowest results:
- Johannesburg and environs: blacks - 74%, total - 65%
- Pretoria: blacks - 64%, total - 55%
- Durban: blacks - 59%, total - 51%
- Cape Town: blacks - 69%, total - 41%
- Port Elizabeth/East London: blacks - 79%, total 63%
- Bloemfontein: blacks - 60%, total - 63%
If one adds non-metro areas, his approval ratings are -
• Northern Cape, Eastern Cape and Free State - 79%
• North West - 75%
• Limpopo - 74%
• Gauteng - 66%
• Western Cape - 54%
• Mpumalanga - 51%
• KwaZulu-Natal - 49%
Comparing these results with those for President Mandela in 1998
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1998 represents the last full calendar year of President Nelson period in office. President Mbeki's results for 2005 show an almost identical rating amongst blacks, and a better rating amongst all other race groups. This comparison must be made with caution, however, as SA has had the benefit of a longer period of stability that had President Mandela in 1998.
Summary
The President's ratings have remained high throughout the controversy-ridden year of 2005 with only a relatively modest drop towards the end of the year.